Retirement rates are up and new workers in the work force are down. (Look at a demographic pyramid for more details)
Instead of “saving for retirement” by giving money to investors to invest in growth opportunities, now retirees are taking money out of the system to live on. Suddenly the pressure Is no longer on growth for companies, it’s on generating revenue that can be passed on to share holders, ether by stock buy backs or dividends. And there are not nearly enough new young workers coming to the work force and putting away savings in investments to make up the difference.
Capital is getting rarer now, if companies want it, they need to prove they can generate revenue, no more blitz scaling, no more “we’ll figure out how to monetize later”. Suddenly the free services need to make money, enshittification is the inevitable result.
Just to be clear, generally stock buy backs are not to increase revenue or dividends, but to increase the stock price by creating a false scarcity. Potential dividend increases from corporate stock ownership are a shell game as the corporation received the dividend and it is simply added to the cash on hand and book value.
Nearly all growth in stocks is capital based. Every corporation wants to increase revenue and profits because that forms the basis for valuation. Yes, there are young companies who are “forward looking” and trading on factors based on revenue and not net income, but most of the market is based on a net income multiplier (which varies by industry).
As much pressure as the boomers (and soon GenXers) will place on revenue, it will never be enough to support the lifestyle to which they have become accustomed. Rather, they will be selling capital to fund their retirements. This will lead to long term stagnation of stock prices (in the best scenario) or a collapse of market value as retirees try to sell their stock for the next 9 month round-the-world cruise. This is a negative feedback loop, too, as the more people sell, the lower the value of their stock, requiring they sell even more shares to get to a fixed value in cash. I think of this as just one more Fuck You (added to the collapse of public health and public retirement subsidies) the boomers will be handing Millennials and GenZ. Actually, I thought you might catch a break with housing, as the value of housing as they all move into retirement homes would drop with the glut of units coming to market. Alas, corporations have found they can buy those units and rent them back at exorbitant rates, so they’ll be tag teaming the boomers in fucking over the youth of today.
What I meant by stock buy backs as a way of generating revanue was more that it’s a way to take revanue and pass it on the shareholder without using dividends, which are what the corporate tax is on. The way I worded it was really poor.
I don’t think the current generation of retirees are screwing over younger generations maliciously, they just haven’t critically examined the whole economic system and don’t seem to get that the current system is incredibly unsustainable, they just want the money they were promised. They are so insulated from the decision making process that they don’t understand the reality of what they’re demanding.
Indeed. This is definitely Hanlon’s razor on their part. Though, still, this is a failing of humans - to recognize the impact their actions impose on others.
Zero per cent of app users are running ad blockers
Not to take away from his point, but… Pi-Hole.
I use AdAway to modify the host file on my Android phone. I literally can’t load ad content; sometimes it gets in the way since the ad is the easiest way to get to what I want to click occasionally, lol.
Also, the Vanced app can modify apps to eliminate ads. Or X-Manager for Spotify does a similar thing.
Then there are alternative front-end apps, like NewPipe/LibreTube for YouTube, Xtra for Twitch, and others.
Or there is just straight piracy to avoid the ads, but in their own apps. Stremio + Torrentio + a Debrid service is basically a pirate Netflix app with full control of your stream quality.
Regardless, I think his point mostly stands; it’s a very small percentage of users modifying apps to avoid ads or telemetry.
I agree that pi-hole is an option here, but yeah, the reality is that most daily users don’t even know what it is. At least, not yet.
Adblock Plus and it’s betters became ubiquitous in large part because they were so incredibly easy to install. As easy as gramma accidentally installing yet another yahoo toolbar on accident. Like, too easy.
Pi-Hole isn’t hard to install, and there are some fantastic guides to help users get it running with essentially zero prior knowledge. But in my opinion, I think until it gets closer to “push-button” easiness, pi-hole and systems like it will really be limited to the <5% of users motivated enough to go through the steps, who aren’t mortified of logging into their router’s admin page. I want us to get there faster, and we’re a hell of a lot closer than 10 or even 5 years ago. But we’re not quite there yet.
Edit-typo
Closest thing to “push-button”, are probably VPNs with a built-in ad blocker… which might as well be a pihole. Not sure what % of people use those.
Another way is through DNS (eg. noads.libredns.gr).
This looks really cool! Any downsides/dangers to this? 🤔
The main downside is that there is a lot less customization of filters short of using a different DNS. There is also the potential for logging DNS (present with normal DNS servers as well). LibreOps claims they don’t log requests, and personally I don’t think they have much reason to lie, but there is still that element of trust. Many of the more well known DNS servers don’t offer ad blocking DNS, so you’ll most likely be switching to a different provider.
Thank you for the insights! 👍
I learned about Cory Doctorow when I found a copy of Down and Out In the Magic Kingdom at a bus stop. Never been disappointed.
Cory 😍😍
What a crazy read! Terrifying but somehow also hopeful?
Finding it ironic that I’m literally not able to finish this article because it keeps plastering the page with ads.
Seems to be very similar to his The Enshittification of TikTok post, linked here on his own platform (no ads).
I didn’t do a full comparison, though.
This is a really great read, but I’m less optimistic than he is.
